ATEM Presents 2009 Arrivals Forecast

Greek tourist traffic is expected to decline between 5.41 and 13.01 percent this season, depending on the price of oil, says research group Academy of Tourism Research and Studies (ATEM). However, the group noted that if the oil price remains at $58 per barrel a 10.07 reduction of arrivals is the most likely scenario for 2009.

The predictions are from ATEM’s recently released six-month analysis of Greek tourism activities for the January-June 2009 period.

The report’s figures are based on macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the European Commission and oil forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In January, ATEM released its July-December 2008 report and mentioned a decline of inbound tourism from 4.39 percent to 11.3 percent depending on the forecast scenarios that concerned economic growth, inflation, unemployment and price of oil.

It is reminded that Tourism Minister Kostas Markopoulos estimated in June that there would not be a double-digit percentage decline in international arrivals.

According to the report, the bleak global economic prospects and other international events (terrorism, natural disasters, communicable diseases and pandemics) affect travel from the U.S. and China.

ATEM noted that this effect may leave a significant long-term or even a permanent effect.

In addition, ATEM included a special chapter on the American market in the report.

According to ATEM, it is concluded that the next decade will not see a major growth of inbound tourism from the U.S. to Greece.

Arrivals are expected to stabilize at the low levels of the two previous decades, which translate to some 250-300 thousand arrivals annually.