European Commission Predicts 1.8% Growth for Greece

Monastiraki square, Athens

The European Commission revised its growth forecast for Greece downward from 2.1 percent (July) to 1.8 percent in 2019, while predicting a significant drop in employment to 17.3 percent.

According to the Commission’s forecast released on Thursday, the Greek economy is set to grow by 2.3 percent in 2020 but decelerate to 2 percent in 2021. Commission mid-term growth forecasts in July estimated GDP to grow 2.2 percent in 2020.

The same data indicates a further drop in unemployment levels to 15.4 percent in 2020 (from 17.3 percent in 2019)  and to 14 percent in 2021, with employment projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year and in 2020, and by 1.4 percent in 2021.

Public debt is expected to drop by 12 percentage points from 175.2 percent in 2019 to 169.3 percent in 2020, and to 163.1 percent in 2021.

The Hellenic Parliament in Athens. Photo © Maria Theofanopoulou

In terms of investor activity, the Commission report foresees annual growth to reach 10.1 percent this year and 10.8 percent in 2020.

Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to fluctuate between 0.5 percent and 0.9 percent over the next two years.

Overall, for the EU, the Commission report said growth would expand by just 1.1 percent this year, down from the 1.2 percent forecast in July with the eurozone economy recovering slightly to 1.2 percent in 2020 and 2021.

“The European economy has held up well despite a less favourable external environment,” said European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis.

“However, we may face difficulties in the future: a period of great uncertainty related to trade conflicts, heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector and Brexit,” he said.