IATA: Air Transport Industry to Receive Deeper Revenue Hit by Covid-19

The passenger revenues of the air transport industry for 2020 could plummet $252 billion or 44 percent below 2019’s figure due to the travel restrictions and the expected global recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Tuesday.

Giving an update on its analysis of the revenue impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global air transport industry, IATA said that the new estimate is in a scenario in which severe travel restrictions last for up to three months, followed by a gradual economic recovery later this year.

“The airline industry faces its gravest crisis. Within a matter of a few weeks, our previous worst case scenario is looking better than our latest estimates. But without immediate government relief measures, there will not be an industry left standing,” said IATA’s Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac.

IATA’s previous analysis of up to a $113 billion revenue loss was made on 5 March 2020, before the countries around the world introduced sweeping travel restrictions that largely eliminated the international air travel market.

“Airlines need $200 billion in liquidity support simply to make it through. Some governments have already stepped forward, but many more need to follow suit,” de Juniac added.

IATA: “Before any recovery the immediate impact will be severe.
We now expect a 38% fall in RPKs and $252 billion pax revenue loss in 2020.”

Slower Recovery

According to ΙΑΤΑ, the latest analysis envisions that under this scenario, severe restrictions on travel are lifted after 3 months.

“The recovery in travel demand later this year is weakened by the impact of global recession on jobs and confidence. Full year passenger demand (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) declines 38 percent compared to 2019. Industry capacity (available seat kilometer or ASKs) in domestic and international markets declines 65 percent during the second quarter ended 30 June compared to a year-ago period, but in this scenario recovers to a 10 percent decline in the fourth quarter.”