KEPE: Greek Tourism Improvement Hinges on Vaccination

Greece may see growth in the third quarter of the year provided a large part of its population and of its tourism source markets are vaccinated against Covid-19 by June, said Greece’s Center of Planning & Economic Research (KEPE) in its new report this week.

“If all goes well, there will be a possibility of peak growth in the third [tourist] quarter of 2021, which will probably offset any negative developments in the first quarter,” said KEPE analysts.

The possibility of growth, KEPE said, hinges on speedy vaccination rollouts across Europe and in Greece which will enable non-essential travel and then “we can in Greece expect the return of visitors”.

KEDE stresses, however, that tourist arrivals in 2021 will not achieve 2019 levels – 31.4 million visits who spent 18 billion euros – but it will be a good start. In 2020 Covid year, tourism-related revenue came to 4.2 billion euros and the number of arrivals did not exceed 7.3 million down by 76.5 percent against 2019. 

Recommendations KEPE makes to attract more travelers to Greece include diversifying the tourist product and making wise use of funding opportunities.

“The tourist in the summer 2021 should not be the same as the tourist of the summer of 2019,” said KEPE analysts, adding that the government must channel NSRF and Recovery Fund support into basic, digital, health and safety infrastructure.

Photo: GTP

KEDE sees the post-Covid era as a chance to make things right and formulate a new strategy “based on resilience, long-term sustainability, digital transformation and synergies with local communities, so as to strengthen the local tourism supply chain”.

According to the study, Greek GDP is expected to contract by 9.9 percent in 2020, to reach 10.4 percent in Q1 2021. It expects recovery to begin in Q2, when GDP growth is estimated at 3 percent.