Eurocontrol Revises Downward Flight Forecast for 2022

Photo source: Eurocontrol

A total of 9.5 million flights are expected in Europe this year recouping 85 percent of pre-pandemic 2019 levels despite the Russia-Ukraine war and global economic challenges, said aviation experts Eurocontrol revising their previous forecast downward from 89 percent.

The association said this was their base scenario and cited the change downward to the impact of Covid-19 in Q1.

The new @eurocontrol 3-year forecast expects 9.5 million flights in 2022 – 85% of 2019 levels – despite the impact of the invasion of Ukraine & global economic challengeshttps://t.co/w9FDadGhWf@Transport_EU @IATA @A4Europe @IATA @ACI_EUROPE @CANSOEurope @eraaorg @EBAAorg pic.twitter.com/74CPNMsuzp

— Eamonn Brennan (@BrennanEN23) June 3, 2022

Eurocontrol analysts now say that 2019 levels will be achieved in 2024, with the baseline scenario indicating 10.6 million flights in 2023, 5 percent down on 2019. The forecast is however still hinging on pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war developments.

Analysts note however that the there is a wide variation between EU states with regard to traffic, with some countries in Southern Europe set to reach 2019 levels before the end of 2022. 

According to Eurocontrol’s low scenario which considers the emergence of new Covid-19 variants and economic risks such as high energy prices and a long-term drop in travel demand, recovery to 2019 levels is expected to take place after 2027.

Lastly, Eurocontrol adds that the Russia-Ukraine war is having a limited impact in Europe but that re-routings to avoid closed airspaces are affecting the number of overflights in various countries, including Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Armenia, Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina.