National Bank: Revived Tourism and Strong Goods Exports Drive Greece Growth

The National Bank of Greece revised its projection for growth upward to 5.5-6 percent this year from its previous 4 percent projection at a pace of 3.1 percent driven in large part by a successful year in tourism and thanks to the government’s targeted fiscal interventions to address the energy crisis.

Looking ahead to 2023, the bank expects the economy to grow at a rate of 2 to 2.5 percent, down by one point from its previous estimate with nominal GDP approaching 207 billion euros for the first time since 2011, up by 13.5 percent due to inflation.

Leading the way, tourism-led services increased by 47.7 percent annually and exports of goods was up by 20.8 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) adding a combined 7.9 percentage points to y-o-y GDP growth this quarter.

According to recent data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), Greece’s GDP grew by 7.7 percent compared to the corresponding April-June period last year, almost double the rate of the Eurozone average of 4.1 percent, driven by the surge in tourism.

According to National Bank analysts, over the past five years exports accounted for 36 percent of GDP on average, up 12 percentage points compared to 2000-2006.

Source: National Bank of Greece

Citing 2022 airport traffic data to September, the bank’s analysts said they expect, tourism revenues to hit an all-time high in 2022.

Earlier this year, independent analysts Capital Economics forecast growth at 5.5 percent in 2022 driven by tourism despite the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.