EBRD Sees 2.4% Growth for Greek Economy in 2023

Photo source: European Parliament / ©BELGA/AFP/L.Gouliamaki

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is forecasting 2.4 percent growth for the Greek economy in 2023 and 2.4 percent in 2024.

More specifically, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the Greek economy grew at a steady pace in 2023 but at a slower rate compared to the previous two years. Analysts attribute the moderate slowdown to global developments.

Overall, Greek GDP grew by 2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year boosted by strong export activity and a rise in private consumption and investment activity. The forecast comes close to the government’s estimate of 2.3 percent in 2023.

Source: EBRD

Looking ahead, the EBRD predicts a growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2024 down from the government’s 3 percent estimate.

Meanwhile, preliminary figures for the second quarter of the year show GDP growth of 2.7 percent compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The report also highlights the strong dynamic of the country’s tourism sector, which is set for a record year in 2023. At the same time, confidence in the economy is improving at a steady rate and unemployment dropped to 10.8 percent in July 2023.

Source: EBRD

“Despite concerns about the current account deficit (9.7 percent of GDP in 2022), exports grew by 8.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023. The ratio of investment to GDP registered a significant increase and important European resources for further investment are available in the coming years. Annual inflation is easing after rising above 12 percent in 2022,” the report said.

Source: EBRD

On the downside, Greece continues to have the largest debt in Europe, which however has dropped from over 200 percent of GDP at the end of 2020 to 170 percent of GDP at the end of 2022.

Growth in the EBRD regions is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2023 from 3.3 in 2022. In 2024, as inflation continues to ease, growth is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent.