Israel-Hamas Conflict Spreads Decline in Global Bookings

The recent Israel-Hamas conflict has negatively impacted not only flights to and from the Middle East but has also caused a global slowdown in the aviation industry, according to a recent report by travel analytics firm ForwardKeys.

The analysis by ForwardKeys shows that flight bookings have decreased by 5 percentage points in the three weeks following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, when compared to pre-pandemic levels. ForwardKeys compared flight bookings during the three weeks before October 7 with those during the same period after the attack.

“This war is a catastrophic, heartbreaking, human tragedy that we are all seeing daily on our TV screens. That is bound to put people off travelling to the region, but it has also dented consumer confidence in travelling elsewhere too,” ForwardKeys VP of Insights Olivier Ponti said.

Looking at outbound travel, flight bookings from the Middle Eastern countries fell by 9 percentage points since the outbreak of war. From the Americas, they slowed by 10 percentage points, whilst Asia Pacific, Europe (including Israel) and Africa each slowed by 2 percentage points.

From a destination perspective, the growth in bookings to all regions of the world has slowed down, apart from Africa, which has continued to recover towards 2019 levels. Flight bookings to the Americas are down by 6 percentage points, to Europe by 3 percentage points, to the Asia Pacific by 1 percentage point and to the Middle East by 26 percentage points.

Within the region affected by the conflict, Israel has suffered the worst, with many airlines having cancelled flights. In the period since October 7, flight bookings plummeted by 155 percentage points.

“A fall in bookings of over 100 percent indicates that in addition to there being no new bookings, there have also been cancellations, depleting the existing stock of bookings,” ForwardKeys underlines.

Israel is followed by Saudi Arabia, down 67 percentage points; Jordan, down 54 percentage points; Lebanon, down 45 percentage points; and Egypt, down 35 percentage points. Flight bookings to GCC nations have declined by 25 percentage points.

According to Ponti, as of October 6, bookings showed that global air travel in the last quarter of the year, Q4, would reach 95 percent of its 2019 level, but, as of October 27, the outlook has fallen back by 7 p.p. and stands at 88 percent.

“The equivalent change in outlook for the Middle East is much more sobering, falling back 16 percentage points to 110 percent, from 126 percent, before the war began,” he added.