IATA: 4.7 Billion Travelers to Fly in 2024 Generating $25.7b for Airlines

An estimated 4.7 billion people are expected to fly in 2024 generating 25.7 billion dollars in revenues for airline companies, according to forecasts by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

More specifically, some 4.7 billion people are expected to travel in 2024, exceeding the pre-Covid 2019 level of 4.5 billion with passenger revenues set to reach 717 billion dollars, up by 12 percent from 642 billion dollars in 2023, said IATA.

Revenue is expected to grow by 9.8 percent year on year indicating a full recovery next year.

IATA announced strengthened profitability projections for airlines in 2023 set to reach 23.3 billion dollars, a 2.6 percent net profit margin.

Performance is expected to stabilize in 2024 with airlines set to earn a 2.7 percent net profit margin to 25.7 billion dollars in 2024. However, net profitability globally, IATA said,  is expected to remain below the cost of capital in both years while significant regional variations in financial performance remain.

Other key points of the IATA forecast report include:

–  airline industry operating profits are expected to reach 49.3 billion dollars in 2024, up from 40.7 billion dollars in 2023

– total revenues in 2024 are expected to grow by 7.6 percent year on year to a record 964 billion dollars

– 40.1 million flights are expected to be available in 2024, up from 38.9 million in 2019 and from 36.8 million in 2023

– expenses in 2024 are set to increase by 6.9 percent over 2023 to 914 billion dollars and by 15.1 percent on 2019

– fuel prices are expected to average 113.8 dollars per barrel in 2024, accounting for 31 percent of all airline operating costs

–  cargo volumes are expected to reach 58 million and 61 million tons in 2023 and 2024, respectively

– North America, Europe and the Middle Eastern markets are expected to post net profits in 2023 while Latin America and Africa will remain in the red in 2024.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh. Photo source: IATA

“Considering the major losses of recent years, the 25.7-billion-dollar net profit expected in 2024 is a tribute to aviation’s resilience. The speed of the recovery has been extraordinary. From 2024, the outlook indicates that we can expect more normal growth patterns for both passenger and cargo,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.

Indicatively, an IATA passenger poll conducted in November found that a third of travelers said they are traveling more than they did pre-pandemic; 44 percent said they will travel more in the next 12 months than in the previous 12 months, and 48 percent expect to maintain similar levels of travel in the coming 12 months as in the previous 12 months.

Looking ahead, IATA cites global economic developments, wars, supply chain issues and rising costs of compliance as risks to growth in 2024.