Analysts See Greece Reaching 40m Annual Tourist Arrivals by 2028

Monastiraki, Athens.

Analytics firm Fitch Solutions said recently that annual tourist arrivals to Greece would be reaching 40 million by 2028 boosting the economy but at the same time posing a risk of overtourism.

In the 2024-2028 period, Fitch is forecasting a spike in tourist arrivals supported by traditional source markets such as Germany, the UK, France and Italy, and the Netherlands; new markets including China and India; an increasing number of direct flights; and targeted marketing activities.

The  Greek National Tourism Organization (GNTO) is partnering with international airline carriers to promote Greece and increase the market’s appeal to a wider base of travelers including leisure and business travelers and will further drive the expansion of arrivals to the market.

Analysts are expecting inbound arrivals to reach 39.3 million by 2028 growing at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent almost double the 2014 figure.

According to estimates, tourist arrivals in 2024 are set to rise by 5.3 percent year-on-year to 34.5 million compared to 32.7 million in 2023 and breaking pre-pandemic 2019 levels which came to 31.3 million.

“We project arrivals to Greece to grow by 5.3 percent y-o-y to 34.5 million in 2024. This will be an increase from 32.7 million in 2023 when arrivals fully recovered to pre-Covid levels in 2019, reaching 104.4 percent of the 2019 level,” the report reads.

Fitch analysts go on to add however that the sudden rise in arrivals may lead to overtourism, pressure on infrastructure and saturation at popular tourist destinations.