GBTA: Global Business Travel Spending to Surpass $2 Trillion by 2028

Photo source: GBTA

Global business travel spending boomed in 2023 and is expected to recover to its pre-pandemic record total of $1.48 trillion in 2024 and surpass $2 trillion by 2028, according to the data released by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and Visa. The GBTA is one of world’s largest business travel associations.

The forecast for 2024 and 2028 was part of the 16th edition of the GBTA Business Travel Index Outlook – Annual Global Report and Forecast (GBTA BTI) unveiled onstage Monday at the association’s convention in Atlanta.

“We are witnessing the expected rebound in the sector, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of businesses and the value of business travel worldwide,” said GBTA CEO  Suzanne Neufang during the convention.

According to the findings from the latest GBTA BTI, business travel spending was boosted during the last two years by economic stability, pent-up demand and recovery momentum.

“With projected spending expected to continue to increase through 2028, the future of business travel looks promising,” Neufang said.

Global business travel spending is anticipated to increase 11.1 percent in 2024, after significant years in 2022 and 2023 of 30-47 percent growth year over year. Growth is expected to continue to gradually moderate, resulting in an annual compound growth rate of 6.95 percent from 2025 to 2028.

Source: GBTA

In 2023, the business travel industry had recovered approximately $675 billion of the $770 billion lost in 2020, according to GBTA BTI analysis, achieving 93 percent of the pre-pandemic peak of $1.43 trillion by the end of 2023. The sector experienced a significant resurgence in 2023, with spending growing by 30 percent compared to 2022, reaching $1.3 trillion.

 Highlights from the 2024 GBTA BTI Outlook

Source: GBTA

According to data from the latest GBTA BTI, recovery in business travel continues to vary by region. Asia Pacific emerged as the fastest-growing region in 2023, with 36 percent, followed by Western Europe by 33 percent and North America by 25 percent.

The recovery bounce back was led in 2023 by the US, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, all achieving 100 percent or more of 2019 spending numbers. For 2024, China and the U.S. are forecast to continue to lead as the top two markets, respectively, for overall business travel spending.

In Europe, Germany is expected to take the lion’s share of business travel spending, followed by the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and in the last place – among the top 15 worlwide – Turkey. 

Business travel spending also continues to differ across industries.

The financial and insurance activities sector is projected to experience the most significant expansion by 72 percent in business travel spending through 2028. Conversely, the retail trade with 41 percent and agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors. with 32 percent, are anticipated to see the least growth during this period.

Business travel spending, Greatest priorities

Business travelers globally estimate their own spending, which on average, amounts to $834 per person based on their last business trip. Lodging accounts for $312, on average, and food and beverage is $153. Air travel averages $176 while ground transportation ($103) and miscellaneous expenses ($89) round out the total.

When asked about their greatest priorities while traveling for work, maximizing comfort (43 percent) and minimizing cost (41 percent) are on the same level globally, with 16 percent saying reducing carbon emissions.

Additionally, European travelers (22 percent) are more likely to prioritize reducing their carbon footprint compared to other regions.

Potential headwinds

Photo source: GBTA

With an optimistic outlook overall, there are factors that could impact business travel’s longer-term forecast. Persistent inflation, China’s slower recovery, geopolitical tensions, industry workforce challenges and incidence of natural disasters could result in shifts to the outlook. Increased focus on corporate sustainability also has the potential to impact the sector, demonstrating the vital importance of coordinated action across the industry for business travel’s future.

Potential upside impacts for the business travel sector include ongoing economic stability, technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), and stronger-than-expected economic growth in key markets like the U.S. and India.