Greek Tourism and Carrying Capacity: Study Highlights Path to Sustainable Growth

A new study by the Engineering Department of the Democritus University of Thrace in northern Greece scientifically examines the sustainability and development potential of the Greek tourism market. The study finds that the market is currently unevenly developed and lacks cohesion.

“Half of Greece, particularly the eastern and southern regions, including the Aegean Sea, is oversaturated,” according to Professor Alexandra Gemitzi, head of the Geoinformation team that conducted the study.

Speaking to Greek media, Professor Gemitzi emphasized that the northern and western parts of Greece require support through sustainable tourism development.

Carrying Capacity Development Index

Published in the scientific journal “Land,” the study introduces a novel index, the Carrying Capacity Development Index (CCDI),which measures the maximum level of economic and social growth an environment can support without significant degradation or collapse. This index integrates environmental and socioeconomic dimensions, including anthropocentric factors, to ensure sustainable development.

The CCDI ranges from 0 (least carrying capacity for development) to 1 (highest carrying capacity for development).

According to Professor Gemitzi, those planning or seeking sustainable development often mistakenly focus on the lack of infrastructure in a particular area, rather than on the limitations or potential of its natural resources.

Carrying capacity of Greek destinations

Discussing these limitations, Professor Gemitzi noted that major urban centers in Greece, such as Athens, Thessalonica, Patras, Larissa, Corinth, Chalkida, Heraklion on the island of Crete, as well as the southeastern part of the country, including the Peloponnese, the Aegean islands, the Dodecanese islands, and a significant part of Crete, exhibit very low Carrying Capacity Development Index (CCDI) values. As a result, these areas have limited potential for further tourism development.

However, there are still islands and less densely populated cities with CCDI values ranging from 0.50 to 0.60, indicating moderate potential for further development. The islands of Chios and Samos in the northern Aegean are examples of such areas.

Additionally, small urban centers such as Drama and Serres have shown great growth potential, with CCDI values exceeding 0.60, indicating the availability of natural resources for further development.

In these towns, alternative forms of tourism have emerged in recent years. Drama, for instance, hosts a wine tourism industry and a short film festival, while Serres promotes ecotourism around Lake Kerkini, all based on a model of sustainable tourism.

Similarly, many mountainous regions of Greece present a favorable environment for sustainable tourism development due to the depopulation of residents.

The CCDI value is relatively high in mountainous areas such as Pindos, Evrytania, mountainous Trikala, and mountainous Ioannina. These regions already have pockets of sustainable, alternative tourism. Rich in natural resources and less affected by human activities, these areas have significant potential for future development.

The coastal region of Epirus, including areas like Sivota and Parga, also offers opportunities for development.

The case of the Aegean Islands

Addressing the misconception about the carrying capacity of development, Professor Gemitzi highlighted the Aegean islands.

“These islands are a special case where specialized measures should be considered to promote sustainable development. They are limited in area and natural resources and face the challenge of mass tourism, which threatens to alter their natural character,” she stated.

According to Professor Gemitzi, immediate solutions are needed to control tourist flows and resource consumption. These may include imposing a maximum number of visitors in sensitive areas, implementing a special tax on visitors, enforcing strict conditions for construction and interventions in the natural environment, and promoting truly sustainable development investments that support local communities.